Riding profile

Normanton and Hemsworth

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Normanton and Hemsworth: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 40.5%
  • Labour 29.1%
  • Conservative 12.4%
  • Green 11.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.4%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereNormanton and Hemsworth 40.5%29.1%12.4%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +15.2 21.8% +7.3 19.3% −6.9 10.8% +0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Normanton and Hemsworth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 41% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jon Trickett

Sits with Labour

Since
1996-02-01
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jon Trickett Elected Labour 17,275 47.5 —
Callum Bushrod Reform UK 10,613 29.2 —
Alice Hopkin Conservative 4,995 13.7 —
Ashton Howick Green 2,147 5.9 —
Craig Dobson Lib Dems 1,319 3.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,436
Median age
42
Employment rate
67.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029