Riding profile
Normanton and Hemsworth
The question
Normanton and Hemsworth: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Normanton and Hemsworth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 43% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jon Trickett
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNormanton and Hemsworth | 43.2% | 26.6% | 12.4% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +17.9 | 21.7% +4.9 | 11.8% +0.6 | 18.9% −8.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Trickett Elected | Labour | 17,275 | 47.5 | — |
| Callum Bushrod | Reform UK | 10,613 | 29.2 | — |
| Alice Hopkin | Conservative | 4,995 | 13.7 | — |
| Ashton Howick | Green | 2,147 | 5.9 | — |
| Craig Dobson | Lib Dems | 1,319 | 3.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029