Riding profile
York Outer
The question
York Outer: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereYork Outer | 27.0% | 24.4% | 22.6% | 13.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +5.2 | 25.4% −0.9 | 19.3% +3.2 | 11.4% +2.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
York Outer, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 27% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mr Luke Charters
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Charters Elected | Labour | 23,161 | 45.3 | — |
| Julian Sturdy | Conservative | 13,770 | 26.9 | — |
| John Crispin-Bailey | Reform UK | 5,912 | 11.6 | — |
| Andrew Hollyer | Lib Dems | 5,496 | 10.8 | — |
| Michael Kearney | Green | 2,212 | 4.3 | — |
| David Eadington | Other | 260 | 0.5 | — |
| Keith Hayden | Other | 141 | 0.3 | — |
| Hal Mayne | Other | 88 | 0.2 | — |
| Darren Borrows | Other | 66 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029