Riding profile
Thirsk and Malton
The question
Thirsk and Malton: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereThirsk and Malton | 32.6% | 30.4% | 13.8% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +13.3 | 25.4% +5.0 | 21.8% −8.1 | 11.4% −1.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Thirsk and Malton, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Kevin Hollinrake
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hollinrake Elected | Conservative | 19,544 | 39.3 | — |
| Lisa Banes | Labour | 11,994 | 24.1 | — |
| Mark Robinson | Reform UK | 8,963 | 18.0 | — |
| Steve Mason | Lib Dems | 5,379 | 10.8 | — |
| Richard McLane | Green | 2,986 | 6.0 | — |
| Luke Brownlee | Other | 931 | 1.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029