Riding profile
Redcar
The question
Redcar: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Redcar, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Anna Turley
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.7
- P(close race)
- 97%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRedcar | 32.8% | 28.0% | 23.1% | 7.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.4 | 18.9% +9.1 | 21.7% +1.4 | 11.6% −4.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Turley Elected | Labour | 15,663 | 41.0 | — |
| Jacob Young | Conservative | 12,340 | 32.3 | — |
| John Davies | Reform UK | 7,216 | 18.9 | — |
| Chris Jones | Lib Dems | 1,542 | 4.0 | — |
| Ruth Hatton | Green | 1,279 | 3.4 | — |
| Gary Conlin | Other | 169 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029