Riding profile

Redcar

UK constituency — England · Urban · north east

The question

Redcar: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 33.8%
  • Conservative 25.9%
  • Labour 24.3%
  • Green 7.7%
  • Lib Dems 6.1%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereRedcar 33.8%25.9%24.3%7.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +8.4 19.3% +6.6 21.8% +2.4 10.8% −3.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Redcar, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Anna Turley

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anna Turley Elected Labour 15,663 41.0 —
Jacob Young Conservative 12,340 32.3 —
John Davies Reform UK 7,216 18.9 —
Chris Jones Lib Dems 1,542 4.0 —
Ruth Hatton Green 1,279 3.4 —
Gary Conlin Other 169 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,862
Median age
45
Employment rate
71.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029