Riding profile
Stockton North
The question
Stockton North: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Stockton North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chris McDonald
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStockton North | 38.2% | 28.0% | 17.4% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +12.9 | 21.7% +6.4 | 18.9% −1.5 | 11.8% −1.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris McDonald Elected | Labour | 17,128 | 45.8 | — |
| John McDermottroe | Reform UK | 9,189 | 24.6 | — |
| Niall Innes | Conservative | 8,028 | 21.5 | — |
| Samuel Bradford | Green | 1,923 | 5.1 | — |
| Jo Barton | Lib Dems | 1,133 | 3.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029