Stockton North
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 80%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton North | 36.3% | 33.4% | 17.6% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+9.8 | 22.3%+11.2 | 20.0%−2.5 | 9.7%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,267 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 64.8% |
Current member
Chris McDonald · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris McDonald Elected | Labour | 17,128 | 45.8 |
| John McDermottroe | Reform UK | 9,189 | 24.6 |
| Niall Innes | Conservative | 8,028 | 21.5 |
| Samuel Bradford | Green | 1,923 | 5.1 |
| Jo Barton | Lib Dems | 1,133 | 3.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour, safe seat
- Redcar Labour, toss-up
- Hartlepool Labour, toss-up
- Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Conservative, toss-up
- Stockton West Conservative, safe seat
- Easington Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated