Riding profile
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
The question
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland: will Labour lose this seat to Conservative?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMiddlesbrough South and East Cleveland | 34.3% | 24.7% | 20.2% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +14.9 | 21.8% +2.9 | 25.4% −5.2 | 10.8% −2.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 34% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Luke Myer
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Myer Elected | Labour | 16,468 | 43.3 | — |
| Simon Clarke | Conservative | 16,254 | 42.7 | — |
| Jemma Joy | Lib Dems | 2,032 | 5.3 | — |
| Rod Liddle | Other | 1,835 | 4.8 | — |
| Rowan McLaughlin | Green | 1,446 | 3.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029