Riding profile
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
The question
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland: will Labour lose this seat to Conservative?
Editorial read
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 37% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Luke Myer
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMiddlesbrough South and East Cleveland | 36.6% | 23.2% | 20.5% | 7.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +17.7 | 21.7% +1.6 | 25.3% −4.8 | 11.6% −3.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Myer Elected | Labour | 16,468 | 43.3 | — |
| Simon Clarke | Conservative | 16,254 | 42.7 | — |
| Jemma Joy | Lib Dems | 2,032 | 5.3 | — |
| Rod Liddle | Other | 1,835 | 4.8 | — |
| Rowan McLaughlin | Green | 1,446 | 3.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029