Riding profile
Stockton West
The question
Stockton West: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStockton West | 33.2% | 30.4% | 23.2% | 6.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +13.9 | 25.4% +5.0 | 21.8% +1.3 | 10.8% −4.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Stockton West, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Matt Vickers
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Vickers Elected | Conservative | 20,372 | 41.9 | — |
| Joe Dancey | Labour | 18,233 | 37.5 | — |
| Steve Matthews | Reform UK | 6,833 | 14.1 | — |
| Anna-Maria Toms | Green | 1,477 | 3.0 | — |
| Nigel Boddy | Lib Dems | 1,203 | 2.5 | — |
| Mohammed Zaroof | Other | 263 | 0.5 | — |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 106 | 0.2 | — |
| Vivek Chhabra | Other | 106 | 0.2 | — |
| Monty Brack | Other | 45 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029