Riding profile
Darlington
The question
Darlington: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Darlington, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Lola McEvoy
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.5
- P(close race)
- 98%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDarlington | 31.0% | 26.7% | 24.1% | 11.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +12.1 | 25.3% +1.3 | 21.7% +2.5 | 11.8% −0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lola McEvoy Elected | Labour | 16,621 | 39.2 | — |
| Peter Gibson | Conservative | 14,323 | 33.8 | — |
| Michael Walker | Reform UK | 6,852 | 16.2 | — |
| Matthew Snedker | Green | 2,847 | 6.7 | — |
| Simon Thorley | Lib Dems | 1,735 | 4.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029