Riding profile

Darlington

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Darlington: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.2%
  • Conservative 27.8%
  • Labour 24.8%
  • Green 8.8%
  • Lib Dems 5.0%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereDarlington 32.2%27.8%24.8%8.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.8 19.3% +8.5 21.8% +3.0 10.8% −2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Darlington, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Lola McEvoy

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
5.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lola McEvoy Elected Labour 16,621 39.2 —
Peter Gibson Conservative 14,323 33.8 —
Michael Walker Reform UK 6,852 16.2 —
Matthew Snedker Green 2,847 6.7 —
Simon Thorley Lib Dems 1,735 4.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,710
Median age
42
Employment rate
74.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029