Riding profile

Washington and Gateshead South

UK constituency — England · Urban · north east

The question

Washington and Gateshead South: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 42.5%
  • Labour 31.0%
  • Conservative 9.8%
  • Green 8.0%
  • Lib Dems 5.6%
  • Other 2.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereWashington and Gateshead South 42.5%31.0%9.8%8.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +17.1 21.8% +9.2 19.3% −9.5 10.8% −2.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Washington and Gateshead South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 42% vote share, against 31% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mrs Sharon Hodgson

Sits with Labour

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sharon Hodgson Elected Labour 17,682 47.8
Paul Donaghy Reform UK 10,769 29.1
Shaun Parsons Conservative 4,654 12.6
Michal Chantkowski Green 1,687 4.6
Ciaran Morrissey Lib Dems 1,602 4.3
Sharon McLafferty Other 627 1.7

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,766
Median age
43
Employment rate
69.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029