Riding profile
Sunderland Central
The question
Sunderland Central: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Sunderland Central, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lewis Atkinson
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSunderland Central | 36.4% | 28.4% | 12.6% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +11.1 | 21.7% +6.7 | 11.8% +0.8 | 18.9% −6.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Atkinson Elected | Labour | 16,852 | 42.2 | — |
| Chris Enyon | Reform UK | 10,779 | 27.0 | — |
| Greg Peacock | Conservative | 5,731 | 14.3 | — |
| Niall Hodson | Lib Dems | 3,602 | 9.0 | — |
| Rachel Featherstone | Green | 2,993 | 7.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029