Riding profile

Sunderland Central

UK constituency — England · Urban · north east

The question

Sunderland Central: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 38.6%
  • Labour 29.0%
  • Conservative 12.1%
  • Green 9.7%
  • Lib Dems 9.3%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereSunderland Central 38.6%29.0%12.1%9.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +13.2 21.8% +7.2 19.3% −7.2 10.8% −1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Sunderland Central, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 39% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Lewis Atkinson

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lewis Atkinson Elected Labour 16,852 42.2 —
Chris Enyon Reform UK 10,779 27.0 —
Greg Peacock Conservative 5,731 14.3 —
Niall Hodson Lib Dems 3,602 9.0 —
Rachel Featherstone Green 2,993 7.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,595
Median age
41
Employment rate
69.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029