Riding profile

Sunderland Central

UK constituency — England · Urban · north east

The question

Sunderland Central: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

Sunderland Central, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Lewis Atkinson

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 36.4%
  • Labour 28.4%
  • Green 12.6%
  • Conservative 12.0%
  • Lib Dems 9.3%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Green Conservative
HereSunderland Central 36.4%28.4%12.6%12.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +11.1 21.7% +6.7 11.8% +0.8 18.9% −6.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lewis Atkinson Elected Labour 16,852 42.2
Chris Enyon Reform UK 10,779 27.0
Greg Peacock Conservative 5,731 14.3
Niall Hodson Lib Dems 3,602 9.0
Rachel Featherstone Green 2,993 7.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,595
Median age
41
Employment rate
69.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029