Riding profile

Easington

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Easington: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 42.0%
  • Labour 29.6%
  • Green 9.4%
  • Conservative 9.3%
  • Other 5.2%
  • Lib Dems 4.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Green Conservative
HereEasington 42.0%29.6%9.4%9.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +16.7 21.8% +7.7 10.8% −1.4 19.3% −10.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Easington, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 42% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Grahame Morris

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
19.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Grahame Morris Elected Labour 16,774 48.9 —
Lynn Murphy Reform UK 10,232 29.8 —
Joanne Howey Conservative 3,753 10.9 —
Mary Cartwright Other 1,581 4.6 —
Stephen Ashfield Green 1,173 3.4 —
Tony Ferguson Lib Dems 811 2.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,305
Median age
43
Employment rate
78.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029