Riding profile

Easington

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Easington: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

Easington, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 44% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Grahame Morris

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 43.7%
  • Labour 27.3%
  • Green 8.6%
  • Conservative 7.5%
  • Lib Dems 7.3%
  • Other 5.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Green Conservative
HereEasington 43.7%27.3%8.6%7.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +18.4 21.7% +5.6 11.8% −3.2 18.9% −11.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
19.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Grahame Morris Elected Labour 16,774 48.9
Lynn Murphy Reform UK 10,232 29.8
Joanne Howey Conservative 3,753 10.9
Mary Cartwright Other 1,581 4.6
Stephen Ashfield Green 1,173 3.4
Tony Ferguson Lib Dems 811 2.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,305
Median age
43
Employment rate
78.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029