Riding profile
Jarrow and Gateshead East
The question
Jarrow and Gateshead East: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Jarrow and Gateshead East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 32% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kate Osborne
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereJarrow and Gateshead East | 36.8% | 31.6% | 12.6% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +11.5 | 21.7% +10.0 | 11.8% +0.7 | 11.6% −3.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Osborne Elected | Labour | 18,856 | 51.3 | — |
| Lynda Alexander | Reform UK | 9,892 | 26.9 | — |
| Jack Gebhard | Conservative | 3,354 | 9.1 | — |
| Nic Cook | Green | 2,384 | 6.5 | — |
| Jamie Rickelton | Lib Dems | 1,740 | 4.7 | — |
| Mark Conway | Other | 502 | 1.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029