Riding profile
Jarrow and Gateshead East
The question
Jarrow and Gateshead East: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereJarrow and Gateshead East | 38.2% | 34.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +12.9 | 21.8% +12.7 | 10.8% −1.5 | 19.3% −11.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Jarrow and Gateshead East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 35% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Kate Osborne
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Osborne Elected | Labour | 18,856 | 51.3 | — |
| Lynda Alexander | Reform UK | 9,892 | 26.9 | — |
| Jack Gebhard | Conservative | 3,354 | 9.1 | — |
| Nic Cook | Green | 2,384 | 6.5 | — |
| Jamie Rickelton | Lib Dems | 1,740 | 4.7 | — |
| Mark Conway | Other | 502 | 1.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029