Riding profile

Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend

UK constituency — England · Urban · north east

The question

Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.0%
  • Reform UK 30.4%
  • Green 14.8%
  • Lib Dems 7.8%
  • Conservative 6.8%
  • Other 3.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Lib Dems
HereNewcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend 36.0%30.4%14.8%7.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +14.2 25.4% +5.0 10.8% +4.0 11.4% −3.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mary Glindon

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
30.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mary Glindon Elected Labour 21,200 50.1
Janice Richardson Reform UK 8,383 19.8
Matt Williams Green 5,257 12.4
Rosie Hanlon Conservative 3,522 8.3
Mark Ridyard Lib Dems 2,965 7.0
Muhammad Ghori Other 430 1.0
Liz Panton Other 283 0.7
Emma-Jane Phillips Other 186 0.4
Robert Malyn Other 95 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
116,200
Median age
35
Employment rate
72.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029