Riding profile
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend
The question
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNewcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | 36.0% | 30.4% | 14.8% | 7.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +14.2 | 25.4% +5.0 | 10.8% +4.0 | 11.4% −3.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mary Glindon
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Glindon Elected | Labour | 21,200 | 50.1 | — |
| Janice Richardson | Reform UK | 8,383 | 19.8 | — |
| Matt Williams | Green | 5,257 | 12.4 | — |
| Rosie Hanlon | Conservative | 3,522 | 8.3 | — |
| Mark Ridyard | Lib Dems | 2,965 | 7.0 | — |
| Muhammad Ghori | Other | 430 | 1.0 | — |
| Liz Panton | Other | 283 | 0.7 | — |
| Emma-Jane Phillips | Other | 186 | 0.4 | — |
| Robert Malyn | Other | 95 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Newcastle upon Tyne NorthLabour Safe seatOpen →
- Cramlington and KillingworthReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Jarrow and Gateshead EastReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Gateshead Central and WhickhamLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Washington and Gateshead SouthReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029