Riding profile

Gateshead Central and Whickham

UK constituency — England · Urban · north east

The question

Gateshead Central and Whickham: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Gateshead Central and Whickham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mark Ferguson

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 31.9%
  • Reform UK 29.9%
  • Lib Dems 13.1%
  • Green 12.7%
  • Conservative 9.5%
  • Other 2.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Lib Dems Green
HereGateshead Central and Whickham 31.9%29.9%13.1%12.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +10.2 25.3% +4.5 11.6% +1.4 11.8% +0.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
24.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mark Ferguson Elected Labour 18,245 45.4
Damian Heslop Reform UK 8,601 21.4
Ron Beadle Lib Dems 4,987 12.4
Nicholas Oliver Conservative 4,628 11.5
Rachel Cabral Green 3,217 8.0
Norman Hall Other 369 0.9
Graham Steele Other 170 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,923
Median age
40
Employment rate
66.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029