Riding profile
Gateshead Central and Whickham
The question
Gateshead Central and Whickham: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGateshead Central and Whickham | 32.4% | 31.7% | 13.2% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +10.6 | 25.4% +6.3 | 11.4% +1.9 | 10.8% −0.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Gateshead Central and Whickham, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 32% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mark Ferguson
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ferguson Elected | Labour | 18,245 | 45.4 | — |
| Damian Heslop | Reform UK | 8,601 | 21.4 | — |
| Ron Beadle | Lib Dems | 4,987 | 12.4 | — |
| Nicholas Oliver | Conservative | 4,628 | 11.5 | — |
| Rachel Cabral | Green | 3,217 | 8.0 | — |
| Norman Hall | Other | 369 | 0.9 | — |
| Graham Steele | Other | 170 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Newcastle upon Tyne NorthLabour Safe seatOpen →
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendLabour Safe seatOpen →
- Cramlington and KillingworthReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Blaydon and ConsettReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Washington and Gateshead SouthReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029