Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | 37.6% | 26.6% | 11.9% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+11.1 | 22.3%+4.4 | 9.7%+2.2 | 5.1%+6.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 134,453 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 33 |
| Employment rate | 67.0% |
Current member
Dame Chi Onwurah · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 26.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 10.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chi Onwurah Elected | Labour | 18,875 | 45.6 |
| Ashton Muncaster | Reform UK | 7,815 | 18.9 |
| Frances Lasok | Conservative | 4,228 | 10.2 |
| Yvonne Ridley | Other | 3,627 | 8.8 |
| John Pearson | Green | 3,228 | 7.8 |
| Ali Avaei | Lib Dems | 1,946 | 4.7 |
| Habib Rahman | Other | 1,636 | 4.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour, safe seat
- Blaydon and Consett Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour, safe seat
- Cramlington and Killingworth Labour, safe seat
- North Durham Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated