Riding profile

Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West

UK constituency — England · Urban · north east

The question

Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.3%
  • Reform UK 29.8%
  • Green 12.1%
  • Other 11.4%
  • Conservative 8.0%
  • Lib Dems 5.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Other
HereNewcastle upon Tyne Central and West 33.3%29.8%12.1%11.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +11.5 25.4% +4.4 10.8% +1.3 5.0% +6.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dame Chi Onwurah

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
26.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chi Onwurah Elected Labour 18,875 45.6 —
Ashton Muncaster Reform UK 7,815 18.9 —
Frances Lasok Conservative 4,228 10.2 —
Yvonne Ridley Other 3,627 8.8 —
John Pearson Green 3,228 7.8 —
Ali Avaei Lib Dems 1,946 4.7 —
Habib Rahman Other 1,636 4.0 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
134,453
Median age
33
Employment rate
67.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029