Riding profile

Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West

UK constituency — England · Urban · north east

The question

Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dame Chi Onwurah

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.9%
  • Reform UK 28.8%
  • Green 13.3%
  • Other 10.9%
  • Lib Dems 8.2%
  • Conservative 7.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Other
HereNewcastle upon Tyne Central and West 30.9%28.8%13.3%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +9.3 25.3% +3.5 11.8% +1.5 4.8% +6.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
26.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chi Onwurah Elected Labour 18,875 45.6
Ashton Muncaster Reform UK 7,815 18.9
Frances Lasok Conservative 4,228 10.2
Yvonne Ridley Other 3,627 8.8
John Pearson Green 3,228 7.8
Ali Avaei Lib Dems 1,946 4.7
Habib Rahman Other 1,636 4.0

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
134,453
Median age
33
Employment rate
67.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029