Riding profile

North Durham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

North Durham: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 38.0%
  • Labour 25.3%
  • Conservative 11.7%
  • Lib Dems 10.3%
  • Green 10.2%
  • Other 4.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Lib Dems
HereNorth Durham 38.0%25.3%11.7%10.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +12.7 21.8% +3.5 19.3% −7.6 11.4% −1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

North Durham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Luke Akehurst

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
14.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Luke Akehurst Elected Labour 16,562 39.9 —
Andrew Husband Reform UK 10,689 25.7 —
George Carter Conservative 6,492 15.6 —
Craig Martin Lib Dems 4,208 10.1 —
Sunny Moon-Schott Green 2,366 5.7 —
Chris Bradburn Other 928 2.2 —
Tom Chittenden Other 320 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,565
Median age
45
Employment rate
77.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029