Riding profile
North Durham
The question
North Durham: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
North Durham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Luke Akehurst
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Durham | 37.8% | 23.7% | 12.6% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +12.5 | 21.7% +2.0 | 11.6% +1.0 | 11.8% −1.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Akehurst Elected | Labour | 16,562 | 39.9 | — |
| Andrew Husband | Reform UK | 10,689 | 25.7 | — |
| George Carter | Conservative | 6,492 | 15.6 | — |
| Craig Martin | Lib Dems | 4,208 | 10.1 | — |
| Sunny Moon-Schott | Green | 2,366 | 5.7 | — |
| Chris Bradburn | Other | 928 | 2.2 | — |
| Tom Chittenden | Other | 320 | 0.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Blaydon and ConsettReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- City of DurhamLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Gateshead Central and WhickhamLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Newcastle upon Tyne NorthLabour Safe seatOpen →
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendLabour Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029