Riding profile

City of Durham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

City of Durham: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.2%
  • Labour 30.7%
  • Lib Dems 13.6%
  • Green 12.8%
  • Conservative 8.6%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Lib Dems Green
HereCity of Durham 32.2%30.7%13.6%12.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.8 21.8% +8.9 11.4% +2.2 10.8% +2.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

City of Durham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 31% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mary Kelly Foy

Sits with Labour

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
28.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-27.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mary Foy Elected Labour 19,131 47.1 —
Mark Belch Reform UK 7,374 18.1 —
Mark Wilkes Lib Dems 5,920 14.6 —
Luke Holmes Conservative 5,221 12.8 —
Jonathan Elmer Green 2,803 6.9 —
Sarah Welbourne Other 178 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,538
Median age
38
Employment rate
62.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029