Riding profile
City of Durham
The question
City of Durham: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
City of Durham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mary Kelly Foy
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCity of Durham | 32.7% | 28.8% | 15.7% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +11.1 | 25.3% +3.5 | 11.6% +4.0 | 11.8% −0.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Foy Elected | Labour | 19,131 | 47.1 | — |
| Mark Belch | Reform UK | 7,374 | 18.1 | — |
| Mark Wilkes | Lib Dems | 5,920 | 14.6 | — |
| Luke Holmes | Conservative | 5,221 | 12.8 | — |
| Jonathan Elmer | Green | 2,803 | 6.9 | — |
| Sarah Welbourne | Other | 178 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029