Riding profile
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor
The question
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNewton Aycliffe and Spennymoor | 38.1% | 26.7% | 16.5% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +12.8 | 21.8% +4.9 | 19.3% −2.8 | 10.8% −0.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alan Strickland
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Strickland Elected | Labour | 18,394 | 46.2 | — |
| John Grant | Reform UK | 9,555 | 24.0 | — |
| Paul Howell | Conservative | 8,195 | 20.6 | — |
| Jack Hughes | Green | 1,701 | 4.3 | — |
| Anne-Marie Curry | Lib Dems | 1,491 | 3.7 | — |
| Brian Agar | Other | 264 | 0.7 | — |
| Minhajul Suhon | Other | 246 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029