Riding profile
Houghton and Sunderland South
The question
Houghton and Sunderland South: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Houghton and Sunderland South, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 40% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Bridget Phillipson
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHoughton and Sunderland South | 40.4% | 29.1% | 11.3% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +15.1 | 21.7% +7.5 | 18.9% −7.6 | 11.8% −1.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Phillipson Elected | Labour | 18,837 | 47.0 | — |
| Sam Woods-Brass | Reform UK | 11,668 | 29.1 | — |
| Chris Burnicle | Conservative | 5,514 | 13.8 | — |
| Paul Edgeworth | Lib Dems | 2,290 | 5.7 | — |
| Richard Bradley | Green | 1,723 | 4.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029