Riding profile

Houghton and Sunderland South

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Houghton and Sunderland South: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 42.4%
  • Labour 30.8%
  • Conservative 11.4%
  • Green 7.2%
  • Lib Dems 6.8%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereHoughton and Sunderland South 42.4%30.8%11.4%7.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +17.1 21.8% +9.0 19.3% −7.9 10.8% −3.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Houghton and Sunderland South, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 42% vote share, against 31% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Bridget Phillipson

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
17.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bridget Phillipson Elected Labour 18,837 47.0 —
Sam Woods-Brass Reform UK 11,668 29.1 —
Chris Burnicle Conservative 5,514 13.8 —
Paul Edgeworth Lib Dems 2,290 5.7 —
Richard Bradley Green 1,723 4.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,499
Median age
43
Employment rate
67.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029