Riding profile

Houghton and Sunderland South

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Houghton and Sunderland South: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

Houghton and Sunderland South, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 40% vote share, against 29% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Bridget Phillipson

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 40.4%
  • Labour 29.1%
  • Conservative 11.3%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Lib Dems 7.5%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereHoughton and Sunderland South 40.4%29.1%11.3%10.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +15.1 21.7% +7.5 18.9% −7.6 11.8% −1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
17.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bridget Phillipson Elected Labour 18,837 47.0
Sam Woods-Brass Reform UK 11,668 29.1
Chris Burnicle Conservative 5,514 13.8
Paul Edgeworth Lib Dems 2,290 5.7
Richard Bradley Green 1,723 4.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,499
Median age
43
Employment rate
67.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029