South Shields
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 57% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Shields | 33.1% | 32.6% | 15.3% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+6.6 | 22.3%+10.3 | 9.7%+5.7 | 20.0%−10.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 89,133 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 59.6% |
Current member
Emma Lewell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.1 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Lewell-Buck Elected | Labour | 15,122 | 41.1 |
| Stephen Holt | Reform UK | 8,469 | 23.0 |
| David Francis | Green | 5,433 | 14.8 |
| Craig Robinson | Conservative | 4,128 | 11.2 |
| Ahmed Khan | Other | 2,270 | 6.2 |
| Jonathan Aibi | Lib Dems | 1,402 | 3.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sunderland Central Reform UK, toss-up
- Tynemouth Labour, safe seat
- Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour, toss-up
- Houghton and Sunderland South Labour, toss-up
- Easington Reform UK, toss-up
- Washington and Gateshead South Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated