Riding profile

South Shields

UK constituency — England · Urban · north east

The question

South Shields: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.6%
  • Labour 28.4%
  • Green 14.4%
  • Conservative 10.3%
  • Other 7.0%
  • Lib Dems 4.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Green Conservative
HereSouth Shields 34.6%28.4%14.4%10.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.3 21.8% +6.6 10.8% +3.6 19.3% −9.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

South Shields, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Emma Lewell

Sits with Labour

Since
2013-05-02
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
18.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emma Lewell-Buck Elected Labour 15,122 41.1 —
Stephen Holt Reform UK 8,469 23.0 —
David Francis Green 5,433 14.8 —
Craig Robinson Conservative 4,128 11.2 —
Ahmed Khan Other 2,270 6.2 —
Jonathan Aibi Lib Dems 1,402 3.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
89,133
Median age
44
Employment rate
59.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029