Riding profile
South Shields
The question
South Shields: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
South Shields, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Emma Lewell
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Shields | 31.1% | 24.9% | 21.8% | 9.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.8 | 21.7% +3.2 | 11.8% +10.0 | 18.9% −9.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Lewell-Buck Elected | Labour | 15,122 | 41.1 | — |
| Stephen Holt | Reform UK | 8,469 | 23.0 | — |
| David Francis | Green | 5,433 | 14.8 | — |
| Craig Robinson | Conservative | 4,128 | 11.2 | — |
| Ahmed Khan | Other | 2,270 | 6.2 | — |
| Jonathan Aibi | Lib Dems | 1,402 | 3.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029