Riding profile
Tynemouth
The question
Tynemouth: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTynemouth | 35.7% | 28.9% | 15.1% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +13.9 | 25.4% +3.5 | 19.3% −4.3 | 10.8% −1.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Tynemouth, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sir Alan Campbell
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Campbell Elected | Labour | 24,491 | 50.6 | — |
| Lewis Bartoli | Conservative | 9,036 | 18.7 | — |
| Rosie Elliott | Reform UK | 7,392 | 15.3 | — |
| Chloe-Louise Reilly | Green | 3,592 | 7.4 | — |
| John Appleby | Lib Dems | 2,709 | 5.6 | — |
| Mustaque Rahman | Other | 531 | 1.1 | — |
| Kelly Oliver Dougall | Other | 286 | 0.6 | — |
| Christopher Greener | Other | 273 | 0.6 | — |
| Adam Thewlis | Other | 108 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Jarrow and Gateshead EastReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- South ShieldsReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Blyth and AshingtonReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Sunderland CentralReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendLabour Safe seatOpen →
- Cramlington and KillingworthReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029