Riding profile

Tynemouth

UK constituency — England · Urban · north east

The question

Tynemouth: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Tynemouth, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 34% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Alan Campbell

Sits with Labour

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.7%
  • Reform UK 26.4%
  • Conservative 15.2%
  • Green 14.3%
  • Lib Dems 6.5%
  • Other 3.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereTynemouth 33.7%26.4%15.2%14.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +12.0 25.3% +1.1 18.9% −3.7 11.8% +2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
31.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alan Campbell Elected Labour 24,491 50.6
Lewis Bartoli Conservative 9,036 18.7
Rosie Elliott Reform UK 7,392 15.3
Chloe-Louise Reilly Green 3,592 7.4
John Appleby Lib Dems 2,709 5.6
Mustaque Rahman Other 531 1.1
Kelly Oliver Dougall Other 286 0.6
Christopher Greener Other 273 0.6
Adam Thewlis Other 108 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,738
Median age
45
Employment rate
71.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029