Riding profile

Blyth and Ashington

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Blyth and Ashington: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 41.0%
  • Labour 30.5%
  • Conservative 12.5%
  • Green 9.9%
  • Lib Dems 4.8%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereBlyth and Ashington 41.0%30.5%12.5%9.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +15.7 21.8% +8.7 19.3% −6.8 10.8% −0.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Blyth and Ashington, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 41% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ian Lavery

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
22.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ian Lavery Elected Labour 20,030 49.6 —
Mark Peart Reform UK 10,857 26.9 —
Maureen Levy Conservative 6,121 15.2 —
Steve Leyland Green 1,960 4.8 —
Stephen Psallidas Lib Dems 1,433 3.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,370
Median age
43
Employment rate
70.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029