Riding profile
Blyth and Ashington
The question
Blyth and Ashington: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Blyth and Ashington, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 40% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ian Lavery
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBlyth and Ashington | 39.9% | 30.2% | 11.5% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +14.6 | 21.7% +8.6 | 18.9% −7.4 | 11.8% −1.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Lavery Elected | Labour | 20,030 | 49.6 | — |
| Mark Peart | Reform UK | 10,857 | 26.9 | — |
| Maureen Levy | Conservative | 6,121 | 15.2 | — |
| Steve Leyland | Green | 1,960 | 4.8 | — |
| Stephen Psallidas | Lib Dems | 1,433 | 3.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029