Riding profile

Newcastle upon Tyne North

UK constituency — England · Urban · north east

The question

Newcastle upon Tyne North: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 37.8%
  • Reform UK 23.2%
  • Green 13.1%
  • Lib Dems 13.1%
  • Conservative 10.0%
  • Other 2.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Lib Dems
HereNewcastle upon Tyne North 37.8%23.2%13.1%13.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +16.0 25.4% −2.2 10.8% +2.3 11.4% +1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Newcastle upon Tyne North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 38% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Catherine McKinnell

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
36.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Catherine McKinnell Elected Labour 24,440 50.3 —
Guy Renner-Thompson Conservative 6,678 13.7 —
Aidan King Lib Dems 5,936 12.2 —
Deborah Lorraine Reform UK 5,933 12.2 —
Sarah Peters Green 5,035 10.4 —
King Teare Other 310 0.6 —
Martin Evison Other 285 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
108,626
Median age
36
Employment rate
71.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029