Riding profile
Newcastle upon Tyne North
The question
Newcastle upon Tyne North: a safe seat for Labour?
Editorial read
Newcastle upon Tyne North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Catherine McKinnell
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNewcastle upon Tyne North | 36.1% | 22.1% | 15.2% | 13.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +14.5 | 25.3% −3.2 | 11.8% +3.4 | 11.6% +1.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine McKinnell Elected | Labour | 24,440 | 50.3 | — |
| Guy Renner-Thompson | Conservative | 6,678 | 13.7 | — |
| Aidan King | Lib Dems | 5,936 | 12.2 | — |
| Deborah Lorraine | Reform UK | 5,933 | 12.2 | — |
| Sarah Peters | Green | 5,035 | 10.4 | — |
| King Teare | Other | 310 | 0.6 | — |
| Martin Evison | Other | 285 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendLabour Safe seatOpen →
- Cramlington and KillingworthReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Gateshead Central and WhickhamLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Jarrow and Gateshead EastReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Blyth and AshingtonReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029