Riding profile

Newcastle upon Tyne North

UK constituency — England · Urban · north east

The question

Newcastle upon Tyne North: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Newcastle upon Tyne North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 36% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Catherine McKinnell

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 36.1%
  • Reform UK 22.1%
  • Green 15.2%
  • Lib Dems 13.5%
  • Conservative 10.3%
  • Other 2.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Lib Dems
HereNewcastle upon Tyne North 36.1%22.1%15.2%13.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +14.5 25.3% −3.2 11.8% +3.4 11.6% +1.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
36.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Catherine McKinnell Elected Labour 24,440 50.3
Guy Renner-Thompson Conservative 6,678 13.7
Aidan King Lib Dems 5,936 12.2
Deborah Lorraine Reform UK 5,933 12.2
Sarah Peters Green 5,035 10.4
King Teare Other 310 0.6
Martin Evison Other 285 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
108,626
Median age
36
Employment rate
71.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029