Riding profile

Cramlington and Killingworth

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Cramlington and Killingworth: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.7%
  • Labour 32.1%
  • Conservative 14.9%
  • Green 8.1%
  • Lib Dems 6.2%
  • Other 3.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereCramlington and Killingworth 34.7%32.1%14.9%8.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.3 21.8% +10.3 19.3% −4.4 10.8% −2.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Cramlington and Killingworth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 32% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Emma Foody

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
28.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-25.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emma Foody Elected Labour 22,274 49.1 —
Gordon Fletcher Reform UK 9,454 20.8 —
Ian Levy Conservative 8,592 18.9 —
Ian Jones Green 2,144 4.7 —
Thom Campion Lib Dems 1,898 4.2 —
Scott Lee Other 573 1.3 —
Dawn Furness Other 322 0.7 —
Mathew Wilkinson Other 137 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,057
Median age
43
Employment rate
71.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029