Riding profile

Cramlington and Killingworth

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Cramlington and Killingworth: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Cramlington and Killingworth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 31% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Emma Foody

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.9%
  • Labour 31.0%
  • Conservative 14.8%
  • Green 11.0%
  • Lib Dems 6.6%
  • Other 3.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereCramlington and Killingworth 32.9%31.0%14.8%11.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +7.6 21.7% +9.3 18.9% −4.1 11.8% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
28.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-24.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emma Foody Elected Labour 22,274 49.1
Gordon Fletcher Reform UK 9,454 20.8
Ian Levy Conservative 8,592 18.9
Ian Jones Green 2,144 4.7
Thom Campion Lib Dems 1,898 4.2
Scott Lee Other 573 1.3
Dawn Furness Other 322 0.7
Mathew Wilkinson Other 137 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
98,057
Median age
43
Employment rate
71.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029