Riding profile

Blaydon and Consett

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Blaydon and Consett: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 38.1%
  • Labour 32.3%
  • Conservative 11.1%
  • Green 9.8%
  • Lib Dems 6.7%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereBlaydon and Consett 38.1%32.3%11.1%9.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +12.7 21.8% +10.5 19.3% −8.2 10.8% −1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Blaydon and Consett, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 32% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Liz Twist

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
26.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Liz Twist Elected Labour 21,160 50.1 —
David Ayre Reform UK 10,007 23.7 —
Angela Sterling Conservative 6,052 14.3 —
Richard Simpson Green 2,589 6.1 —
Vicky Anderson Lib Dems 2,273 5.4 —
Paul Topping Other 135 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,199
Median age
44
Employment rate
77.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029