Riding profile
Hartlepool
The question
Hartlepool: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Hartlepool, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 41% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Jonathan Brash
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHartlepool | 41.0% | 25.2% | 17.0% | 6.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +15.7 | 21.7% +3.5 | 18.9% −1.9 | 11.8% −5.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Brash Elected | Labour | 16,414 | 46.2 | — |
| Amanda Napper | Reform UK | 8,716 | 24.5 | — |
| Jill Mortimer | Conservative | 7,767 | 21.9 | — |
| Sam Lee | Other | 895 | 2.5 | — |
| Jeremy Spyby-Steanson | Green | 834 | 2.4 | — |
| Peter Maughan | Lib Dems | 572 | 1.6 | — |
| Tommy Dudley | Other | 248 | 0.7 | — |
| Vivienne Neville | Other | 65 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029