Riding profile

Hartlepool

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Hartlepool: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 38.8%
  • Labour 28.1%
  • Conservative 17.5%
  • Green 7.8%
  • Other 4.2%
  • Lib Dems 3.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereHartlepool 38.8%28.1%17.5%7.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +13.4 21.8% +6.3 19.3% −1.8 10.8% −3.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hartlepool, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 39% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mr Jonathan Brash

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jonathan Brash Elected Labour 16,414 46.2 —
Amanda Napper Reform UK 8,716 24.5 —
Jill Mortimer Conservative 7,767 21.9 —
Sam Lee Other 895 2.5 —
Jeremy Spyby-Steanson Green 834 2.4 —
Peter Maughan Lib Dems 572 1.6 —
Tommy Dudley Other 248 0.7 —
Vivienne Neville Other 65 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,861
Median age
42
Employment rate
62.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029