Hartlepool
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 87% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 80%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | 36.2% | 33.4% | 17.8% | 5.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+9.8 | 22.3%+11.1 | 20.0%−2.3 | 9.7%−3.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,861 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 62.9% |
Current member
Mr Jonathan Brash · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Brash Elected | Labour | 16,414 | 46.2 |
| Amanda Napper | Reform UK | 8,716 | 24.5 |
| Jill Mortimer | Conservative | 7,767 | 21.9 |
| Sam Lee | Other | 895 | 2.5 |
| Jeremy Spyby-Steanson | Green | 834 | 2.3 |
| Peter Maughan | Lib Dems | 572 | 1.6 |
| Tommy Dudley | Other | 248 | 0.7 |
| Vivienne Neville | Other | 65 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stockton North Labour, toss-up
- Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour, safe seat
- Redcar Labour, toss-up
- Easington Reform UK, toss-up
- Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Conservative, toss-up
- Stockton West Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated