Riding profile
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East
The question
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMiddlesbrough and Thornaby East | 31.3% | 30.6% | 15.1% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +5.9 | 21.8% +8.8 | 19.3% −4.2 | 10.8% +0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 31% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Andy McDonald
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy McDonald Elected | Labour | 16,238 | 47.2 | — |
| Patrick Seargeant | Reform UK | 7,046 | 20.5 | — |
| Kiran Fothergill | Conservative | 6,174 | 17.9 | — |
| Mehmoona Ameen | Other | 2,007 | 5.8 | — |
| Matthew Harris | Green | 1,522 | 4.4 | — |
| Mo Waqas | Lib Dems | 1,037 | 3.0 | — |
| Mark Baxtrem | Other | 383 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029