Riding profile
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East
The question
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Middlesbrough and Thornaby East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 28% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Andy McDonald
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMiddlesbrough and Thornaby East | 34.4% | 28.5% | 12.4% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.1 | 21.7% +6.8 | 18.9% −6.5 | 11.6% −2.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy McDonald Elected | Labour | 16,238 | 47.2 | — |
| Patrick Seargeant | Reform UK | 7,046 | 20.5 | — |
| Kiran Fothergill | Conservative | 6,174 | 17.9 | — |
| Mehmoona Ameen | Other | 2,007 | 5.8 | — |
| Matthew Harris | Green | 1,522 | 4.4 | — |
| Mo Waqas | Lib Dems | 1,037 | 3.0 | — |
| Mark Baxtrem | Other | 383 | 1.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029