Riding profile
Richmond and Northallerton
The question
Richmond and Northallerton: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRichmond and Northallerton | 39.2% | 27.0% | 12.7% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +19.9 | 25.4% +1.6 | 21.8% −9.1 | 11.4% −2.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Richmond and Northallerton, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 39% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Rishi Sunak
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishi Sunak Elected | Conservative | 23,059 | 47.5 | — |
| Tom Wilson | Labour | 10,874 | 22.4 | — |
| Lee Taylor | Reform UK | 7,142 | 14.7 | — |
| Daniel Callaghan | Lib Dems | 4,322 | 8.9 | — |
| Kevin Foster | Green | 2,058 | 4.2 | — |
| Count Binface | Other | 308 | 0.6 | — |
| Brian Richmond | Other | 222 | 0.5 | — |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 160 | 0.3 | — |
| Rio Goldhammer | Other | 132 | 0.3 | — |
| Sir Archibald Stanton | Other | 99 | 0.2 | — |
| Louise Dickens | Other | 90 | 0.2 | — |
| Angie Campion | Other | 33 | 0.1 | — |
| Jason Barnett | Other | 27 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029