Riding profile
Harrogate and Knaresborough
The question
Harrogate and Knaresborough: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHarrogate and Knaresborough | 39.8% | 23.8% | 22.8% | 6.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +28.4 | 19.3% +4.5 | 25.4% −2.6 | 10.8% −4.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Harrogate and Knaresborough, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 40% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Tom Gordon
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Gordon Elected | Lib Dems | 23,976 | 46.0 | — |
| Andrew Jones | Conservative | 15,738 | 30.2 | — |
| Jonathan Swales | Reform UK | 5,679 | 10.9 | — |
| Conrad Whitcroft | Labour | 4,153 | 8.0 | — |
| Shan Oakes | Green | 1,762 | 3.4 | — |
| Paul Haslam | Other | 620 | 1.2 | — |
| Stephan Metcalfe | Other | 136 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029