Riding profile

Harrogate and Knaresborough

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Harrogate and Knaresborough: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Harrogate and Knaresborough, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 35% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Tom Gordon

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 35.4%
  • Conservative 24.0%
  • Reform UK 23.7%
  • Green 7.6%
  • Labour 6.5%
  • Other 2.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereHarrogate and Knaresborough 35.4%24.0%23.7%7.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +23.7 18.9% +5.1 25.3% −1.6 11.8% −4.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
15.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tom Gordon Elected Lib Dems 23,976 46.0 —
Andrew Jones Conservative 15,738 30.2 —
Jonathan Swales Reform UK 5,679 10.9 —
Conrad Whitcroft Labour 4,153 8.0 —
Shan Oakes Green 1,762 3.4 —
Paul Haslam Other 620 1.2 —
Stephan Metcalfe Other 136 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,221
Median age
45
Employment rate
70.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029