Riding profile

Wetherby and Easingwold

UK constituency — England · Mixed · yorkshire and the humber

The question

Wetherby and Easingwold: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 34.0%
  • Reform UK 27.0%
  • Labour 18.1%
  • Green 11.3%
  • Lib Dems 6.5%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereWetherby and Easingwold 34.0%27.0%18.1%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +14.7 25.4% +1.7 21.8% −3.8 10.8% +0.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Wetherby and Easingwold, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Alec Shelbrooke

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
9.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alec Shelbrooke Elected Conservative 20,597 39.4
Ben Pickles Labour 15,751 30.1
Mike Jordan Reform UK 7,288 13.9
Arnold Warneken Green 4,529 8.7
James Monaghan Lib Dems 3,351 6.4
John Hall Other 743 1.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,325
Median age
49
Employment rate
72.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029