Riding profile
York Central
The question
York Central: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereYork Central | 38.9% | 23.1% | 20.1% | 7.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +17.1 | 25.4% −2.3 | 10.8% +9.3 | 19.3% −11.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
York Central, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 39% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Rachael Maskell
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachael Maskell Elected | Labour | 24,537 | 56.6 | — |
| Richard Hudson | Conservative | 5,383 | 12.4 | — |
| Lars Kramm | Green | 5,185 | 12.0 | — |
| Cliff Bond | Reform UK | 4,721 | 10.9 | — |
| Alan Page | Lib Dems | 3,051 | 7.0 | — |
| Alisdair Lord | Other | 133 | 0.3 | — |
| Roger James | Other | 131 | 0.3 | — |
| Ruairi Kendall | Other | 98 | 0.2 | — |
| Leo Mayne | Other | 84 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029