Riding profile

Bishop Auckland

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Bishop Auckland: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 38.0%
  • Labour 24.1%
  • Conservative 20.7%
  • Green 10.0%
  • Lib Dems 4.7%
  • Other 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereBishop Auckland 38.0%24.1%20.7%10.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +12.6 21.8% +2.3 19.3% +1.4 10.8% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bishop Auckland, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sam Rushworth

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sam Rushworth Elected Labour 17,036 42.1 —
Jane MacBean Conservative 10,364 25.6 —
Rhys Burriss Reform UK 9,466 23.4 —
Sarah Hannan Green 1,857 4.6 —
Helen Cross Lib Dems 1,373 3.4 —
Rachel Maughan Other 331 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,948
Median age
48
Employment rate
72.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029