Riding profile

Bishop Auckland

UK constituency — England · Mixed · north east

The question

Bishop Auckland: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

Bishop Auckland, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sam Rushworth

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 38.0%
  • Labour 24.0%
  • Conservative 20.4%
  • Green 8.6%
  • Lib Dems 6.3%
  • Other 2.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereBishop Auckland 38.0%24.0%20.4%8.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +12.6 21.7% +2.3 18.9% +1.6 11.8% −3.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sam Rushworth Elected Labour 17,036 42.1
Jane MacBean Conservative 10,364 25.6
Rhys Burriss Reform UK 9,466 23.4
Sarah Hannan Green 1,857 4.6
Helen Cross Lib Dems 1,373 3.4
Rachel Maughan Other 331 0.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,948
Median age
48
Employment rate
72.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029