Riding profile
Bishop Auckland
The question
Bishop Auckland: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Bishop Auckland, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sam Rushworth
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBishop Auckland | 38.0% | 24.0% | 20.4% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +12.6 | 21.7% +2.3 | 18.9% +1.6 | 11.8% −3.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Rushworth Elected | Labour | 17,036 | 42.1 | — |
| Jane MacBean | Conservative | 10,364 | 25.6 | — |
| Rhys Burriss | Reform UK | 9,466 | 23.4 | — |
| Sarah Hannan | Green | 1,857 | 4.6 | — |
| Helen Cross | Lib Dems | 1,373 | 3.4 | — |
| Rachel Maughan | Other | 331 | 0.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029