Riding profile
Stoke-on-Trent Central
The question
Stoke-on-Trent Central: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStoke-on-Trent Central | 34.9% | 27.3% | 15.2% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +9.5 | 21.8% +5.5 | 19.3% −4.1 | 10.8% −0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Stoke-on-Trent Central, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Gareth Snell
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gareth Snell Elected | Labour | 14,950 | 42.4 | — |
| Luke Shenton | Reform UK | 8,541 | 24.2 | — |
| Chandra Kanneganti | Conservative | 6,221 | 17.6 | — |
| Navid Kaleem | Other | 2,281 | 6.5 | — |
| Adam Colclough | Green | 1,703 | 4.8 | — |
| Laura McCarthy | Lib Dems | 999 | 2.8 | — |
| Andy Poleshaw | Other | 315 | 0.9 | — |
| AliRom Alirom | Other | 279 | 0.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029