Riding profile
Stafford
The question
Stafford: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Stafford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Leigh Ingham
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStafford | 30.1% | 25.7% | 24.9% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.7 | 18.9% +6.8 | 21.7% +3.3 | 11.8% −0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leigh Ingham Elected | Labour | 18,531 | 40.3 | — |
| Theo Clarke | Conservative | 13,936 | 30.3 | — |
| Michael Riley | Reform UK | 8,612 | 18.7 | — |
| Scott Spencer | Green | 2,856 | 6.2 | — |
| Peter Andras | Lib Dems | 1,676 | 3.6 | — |
| Titus Anything | Other | 307 | 0.7 | — |
| Craig Morton | Other | 91 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029