Riding profile

Stafford

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Stafford: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.4%
  • Conservative 25.5%
  • Labour 24.4%
  • Green 10.2%
  • Lib Dems 4.8%
  • Other 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereStafford 32.4%25.5%24.4%10.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +7.0 19.3% +6.2 21.8% +2.6 10.8% −0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Stafford, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Leigh Ingham

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
10.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Leigh Ingham Elected Labour 18,531 40.3 —
Theo Clarke Conservative 13,936 30.3 —
Michael Riley Reform UK 8,612 18.7 —
Scott Spencer Green 2,856 6.2 —
Peter Andras Lib Dems 1,676 3.6 —
Titus Anything Other 307 0.7 —
Craig Morton Other 91 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,002
Median age
44
Employment rate
76.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029