Riding profile

The Wrekin

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

The Wrekin: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.6%
  • Conservative 25.8%
  • Labour 19.1%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Lib Dems 9.4%
  • Other 2.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereThe Wrekin 32.6%25.8%19.1%10.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +7.2 19.3% +6.4 21.8% −2.8 10.8% −0.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

The Wrekin, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 33% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mark Pritchard

Sits with Conservative

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
1.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mark Pritchard Elected Conservative 16,320 32.6 —
Roh Yakobi Labour 15,437 30.9 —
Richard Leppington Reform UK 9,920 19.8 —
Anthony Lowe Lib Dems 4,757 9.5 —
Pat McCarthy Green 3,028 6.0 —
Chris Shipley Other 558 1.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,094
Median age
42
Employment rate
77.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029