Riding profile

The Wrekin

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

The Wrekin: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

The Wrekin, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mark Pritchard

Sits with Conservative

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
12%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.7%
  • Conservative 26.5%
  • Labour 18.7%
  • Lib Dems 10.4%
  • Green 10.1%
  • Other 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereThe Wrekin 31.7%26.5%18.7%10.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +6.4 18.9% +7.6 21.7% −3.0 11.6% −1.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
1.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mark Pritchard Elected Conservative 16,320 32.6
Roh Yakobi Labour 15,437 30.9
Richard Leppington Reform UK 9,920 19.8
Anthony Lowe Lib Dems 4,757 9.5
Pat McCarthy Green 3,028 6.0
Chris Shipley Other 558 1.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
110,094
Median age
42
Employment rate
77.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029