Riding profile
Telford
The question
Telford: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTelford | 38.3% | 26.8% | 17.8% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +12.9 | 21.8% +5.0 | 19.3% −1.5 | 10.8% −0.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Telford, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 38% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Shaun Davies
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Davies Elected | Labour | 18,212 | 44.7 | — |
| Alan Adams | Reform UK | 10,110 | 24.8 | — |
| Hannah Campbell | Conservative | 8,728 | 21.4 | — |
| John Adams | Green | 2,120 | 5.2 | — |
| Jo McKenna | Lib Dems | 1,560 | 3.8 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029