Riding profile

Telford

UK constituency — England · Urban · west midlands

The question

Telford: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

Telford, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Shaun Davies

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 36.6%
  • Labour 27.5%
  • Conservative 17.8%
  • Green 10.3%
  • Lib Dems 6.5%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereTelford 36.6%27.5%17.8%10.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +11.3 21.7% +5.8 18.9% −1.1 11.8% −1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
19.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shaun Davies Elected Labour 18,212 44.7
Alan Adams Reform UK 10,110 24.8
Hannah Campbell Conservative 8,728 21.4
John Adams Green 2,120 5.2
Jo McKenna Lib Dems 1,560 3.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,909
Median age
38
Employment rate
78.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029