Riding profile

South Shropshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

South Shropshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.5%
  • Conservative 29.0%
  • Lib Dems 24.0%
  • Green 7.6%
  • Labour 7.6%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems Green
HereSouth Shropshire 30.5%29.0%24.0%7.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.2 19.3% +9.7 11.4% +12.6 10.8% −3.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

South Shropshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Stuart Anderson

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stuart Anderson Elected Conservative 17,628 34.1 —
Matthew Green Lib Dems 16,004 31.0 —
Charles Shackerley-Bennett Reform UK 9,171 17.8 —
Simon Thomson Labour 6,939 13.4 —
Hilary Wendt Green 1,911 3.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,559
Median age
53
Employment rate
79.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029