Riding profile

North Herefordshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

North Herefordshire: a safe seat for the Green Party?

Current forecast

Green

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Green 36.4%
  • Conservative 28.0%
  • Reform UK 25.0%
  • Lib Dems 5.7%
  • Labour 3.0%
  • Other 1.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Green Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems
HereNorth Herefordshire 36.4%28.0%25.0%5.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 10.8% +25.6 19.3% +8.7 25.4% −0.4 11.4% −5.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

North Herefordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 36% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dr Ellie Chowns

Sits with Green

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Green
Margin
11.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ellie Chowns Elected Green 21,736 43.2 —
Bill Wiggin Conservative 15,842 31.5 —
Andrew Dye Reform UK 8,048 16.0 —
Jon Browning Labour 3,205 6.4 —
Cat Hornsey Lib Dems 1,436 2.9 —
Michael Guest Other 95 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
91,362
Median age
52
Employment rate
74.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029