Riding profile
North Herefordshire
The question
North Herefordshire: a safe seat for the Green Party?
Editorial read
North Herefordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dr Ellie Chowns
Sits with Green
Current forecast
Green
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Green | Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Herefordshire | 42.4% | 24.0% | 23.4% | 4.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.8% +30.5 | 18.9% +5.1 | 25.3% −1.9 | 11.6% −7.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Chowns Elected | Green | 21,736 | 43.2 | — |
| Bill Wiggin | Conservative | 15,842 | 31.5 | — |
| Andrew Dye | Reform UK | 8,048 | 16.0 | — |
| Jon Browning | Labour | 3,205 | 6.4 | — |
| Cat Hornsey | Lib Dems | 1,436 | 2.9 | — |
| Michael Guest | Other | 95 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029