Riding profile
Hereford and South Herefordshire
The question
Hereford and South Herefordshire: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHereford and South Herefordshire | 30.1% | 27.3% | 18.5% | 11.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +4.8 | 19.3% +8.0 | 21.8% −3.3 | 11.4% +0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Hereford and South Herefordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jesse Norman
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Norman Elected | Conservative | 14,871 | 32.6 | — |
| Joe Emmett | Labour | 13,592 | 29.8 | — |
| Nigel Ely | Reform UK | 8,395 | 18.4 | — |
| Dan Powell | Lib Dems | 5,325 | 11.7 | — |
| Diana Toynbee | Green | 3,175 | 7.0 | — |
| Mark Weaden | Other | 214 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029