Riding profile
Forest of Dean
The question
Forest of Dean: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Forest of Dean, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Matt Bishop
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereForest of Dean | 29.0% | 27.8% | 19.5% | 14.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.6 | 18.9% +8.9 | 21.7% −2.2 | 11.8% +2.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Bishop Elected | Labour | 16,373 | 34.0 | — |
| Mark Harper | Conservative | 16,095 | 33.5 | — |
| Stan Goodin | Reform UK | 8,194 | 17.0 | — |
| Chris McFarling | Green | 4,735 | 9.8 | — |
| James Joyce | Lib Dems | 2,604 | 5.4 | — |
| Saiham Sikder | Other | 90 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029