Riding profile

Forest of Dean

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Forest of Dean: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.0%
  • Conservative 29.0%
  • Labour 19.5%
  • Green 13.2%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereForest of Dean 30.0%29.0%19.5%13.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.7 19.3% +9.7 21.8% −2.3 10.8% +2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Forest of Dean, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Matt Bishop

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
0.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Matt Bishop Elected Labour 16,373 34.0 —
Mark Harper Conservative 16,095 33.5 —
Stan Goodin Reform UK 8,194 17.0 —
Chris McFarling Green 4,735 9.8 —
James Joyce Lib Dems 2,604 5.4 —
Saiham Sikder Other 90 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,621
Median age
48
Employment rate
86.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029