Riding profile
Gloucester
The question
Gloucester: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGloucester | 27.4% | 24.4% | 22.5% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +2.0 | 19.3% +5.1 | 21.8% +0.7 | 11.4% −0.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Gloucester, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Alex McIntyre
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex McIntyre Elected | Labour | 16,472 | 36.0 | — |
| Richard Graham | Conservative | 13,041 | 28.5 | — |
| Chris Farmer | Reform UK | 7,307 | 16.0 | — |
| Rebecca Trimnell | Lib Dems | 4,759 | 10.4 | — |
| Adam Shearing | Green | 2,307 | 5.0 | — |
| Steve Gower | Other | 974 | 2.1 | — |
| Akhlaque Ahmed | Other | 496 | 1.1 | — |
| Fred Wing Commander (RTD) Ramsey | Other | 336 | 0.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029