Riding profile
Gloucester
The question
Gloucester: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Gloucester, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alex McIntyre
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGloucester | 29.6% | 23.2% | 22.5% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.2 | 18.9% +4.3 | 21.7% +0.8 | 11.6% −0.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex McIntyre Elected | Labour | 16,472 | 36.0 | — |
| Richard Graham | Conservative | 13,041 | 28.5 | — |
| Chris Farmer | Reform UK | 7,307 | 16.0 | — |
| Rebecca Trimnell | Lib Dems | 4,759 | 10.4 | — |
| Adam Shearing | Green | 2,307 | 5.0 | — |
| Steve Gower | Other | 974 | 2.1 | — |
| Akhlaque Ahmed | Other | 496 | 1.1 | — |
| Fred Wing Commander (RTD) Ramsey | Other | 336 | 0.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029