Riding profile

South Cotswolds

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

South Cotswolds: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

South Cotswolds, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 35% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dr Roz Savage

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 34.8%
  • Conservative 27.6%
  • Reform UK 22.6%
  • Green 6.9%
  • Labour 5.6%
  • Other 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereSouth Cotswolds 34.8%27.6%22.6%6.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +23.1 18.9% +8.7 25.3% −2.7 11.8% −4.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
9.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Roz Savage Elected Lib Dems 22,961 43.9
James Gray Conservative 17,988 34.4
Desi Latimer Reform UK 5,146 9.8
Zoë Billingham Labour 3,942 7.5
Bob Eastoe Green 1,564 3.0
Chris Twells Other 225 0.4
Sandy Steel Other 183 0.3
Martin Broomfield Other 156 0.3
Owen Humphrys Other 122 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,755
Median age
47
Employment rate
80.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029