Riding profile
South Cotswolds
The question
South Cotswolds: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
South Cotswolds, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 35% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dr Roz Savage
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Cotswolds | 34.8% | 27.6% | 22.6% | 6.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +23.1 | 18.9% +8.7 | 25.3% −2.7 | 11.8% −4.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roz Savage Elected | Lib Dems | 22,961 | 43.9 | — |
| James Gray | Conservative | 17,988 | 34.4 | — |
| Desi Latimer | Reform UK | 5,146 | 9.8 | — |
| Zoë Billingham | Labour | 3,942 | 7.5 | — |
| Bob Eastoe | Green | 1,564 | 3.0 | — |
| Chris Twells | Other | 225 | 0.4 | — |
| Sandy Steel | Other | 183 | 0.3 | — |
| Martin Broomfield | Other | 156 | 0.3 | — |
| Owen Humphrys | Other | 122 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029