Riding profile
South Cotswolds
The question
South Cotswolds: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Cotswolds | 37.0% | 27.5% | 22.2% | 7.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +25.6 | 19.3% +8.2 | 25.4% −3.2 | 10.8% −3.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
South Cotswolds, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 37% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dr Roz Savage
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roz Savage Elected | Lib Dems | 22,961 | 43.9 | — |
| James Gray | Conservative | 17,988 | 34.4 | — |
| Desi Latimer | Reform UK | 5,146 | 9.8 | — |
| Zoë Billingham | Labour | 3,942 | 7.5 | — |
| Bob Eastoe | Green | 1,564 | 3.0 | — |
| Chris Twells | Other | 225 | 0.4 | — |
| Sandy Steel | Other | 183 | 0.3 | — |
| Martin Broomfield | Other | 156 | 0.3 | — |
| Owen Humphrys | Other | 122 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029