Riding profile
Stroud
The question
Stroud: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStroud | 29.9% | 25.0% | 22.1% | 14.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +8.0 | 25.4% −0.3 | 19.3% +2.8 | 10.8% +3.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Stroud, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dr Simon Opher
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Opher Elected | Labour | 25,607 | 46.4 | — |
| Siobhan Baillie | Conservative | 14,219 | 25.8 | — |
| Chris Lester | Reform UK | 6,329 | 11.5 | — |
| Pete Kennedy | Green | 5,729 | 10.4 | — |
| George James | Lib Dems | 2,913 | 5.3 | — |
| Saskia Whitfield | Other | 261 | 0.5 | — |
| Jason Hughes | Other | 163 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029