Riding profile
Stroud
The question
Stroud: a safe seat for Labour?
Editorial read
Stroud, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 29% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dr Simon Opher
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.1
- P(close race)
- 6%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereStroud | 29.0% | 22.4% | 21.6% | 17.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +7.4 | 25.3% −2.9 | 18.9% +2.7 | 11.8% +5.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Opher Elected | Labour | 25,607 | 46.4 | — |
| Siobhan Baillie | Conservative | 14,219 | 25.8 | — |
| Chris Lester | Reform UK | 6,329 | 11.5 | — |
| Pete Kennedy | Green | 5,729 | 10.4 | — |
| George James | Lib Dems | 2,913 | 5.3 | — |
| Saskia Whitfield | Other | 261 | 0.5 | — |
| Jason Hughes | Other | 163 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029