Riding profile
Torfaen
The question
Torfaen: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Torfaen, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 21% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Nick Thomas-Symonds
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTorfaen | 31.0% | 20.9% | 13.8% | 12.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.6 | 21.7% −0.7 | 18.9% −5.1 | 1.0% +11.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Thomas-Symonds Elected | Labour | 15,176 | 42.5 | — |
| Ian Williams | Reform UK | 7,854 | 22.0 | — |
| Nathan Edmunds | Conservative | 5,737 | 16.1 | — |
| Matthew Jones | Plaid Cymru | 2,571 | 7.2 | — |
| Philip Davies | Green | 1,705 | 4.8 | — |
| Brendan Roberts | Lib Dems | 1,644 | 4.6 | — |
| Lee Dunning | Other | 881 | 2.5 | — |
| Nikki Brooke | Other | 137 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029