Riding profile

Torfaen

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Torfaen: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.8
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.6%
  • Labour 22.7%
  • Plaid Cymru 17.6%
  • Conservative 12.4%
  • Green 9.9%
  • Lib Dems 4.0%
  • Other 3.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Plaid Cymru Conservative
HereTorfaen 29.6%22.7%17.6%12.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.2 21.8% +0.9 1.2% +16.4 19.3% −6.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Torfaen, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Nick Thomas-Symonds

Sits with Labour

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
20.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nick Thomas-Symonds Elected Labour 15,176 42.5 —
Ian Williams Reform UK 7,854 22.0 —
Nathan Edmunds Conservative 5,737 16.1 —
Matthew Jones Plaid Cymru 2,571 7.2 —
Philip Davies Green 1,705 4.8 —
Brendan Roberts Lib Dems 1,644 4.6 —
Lee Dunning Other 881 2.5 —
Nikki Brooke Other 137 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,860
Median age
42
Employment rate
75.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029