Riding profile

Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 28.0%
  • Plaid Cymru 26.0%
  • Reform UK 16.5%
  • Other 9.2%
  • Green 9.0%
  • Conservative 7.9%
  • Lib Dems 3.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Plaid Cymru Reform UK Other
HereBlaenau Gwent and Rhymney 28.0%26.0%16.5%9.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +6.1 1.2% +24.8 25.4% −8.9 5.0% +4.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for Plaid Cymru, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Nick Smith

Sits with Labour

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
40.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-38.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nick Smith Elected Labour 16,027 53.6 —
Niamh Salkeld Plaid Cymru 3,844 12.8 —
Hannah Jarvis Conservative 3,776 12.6 —
Mike Whatley Other 2,409 8.1 —
Anne Baker Green 1,719 5.7 —
Jackie Charlton Lib Dems 1,268 4.2 —
Yas Iqbal Other 570 1.9 —
Robert Griffiths Other 309 1.0 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,680
Median age
42
Employment rate
64.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029