Riding profile
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
The question
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 25% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Nick Smith
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Plaid Cymru
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.8
- P(close race)
- 83%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Plaid Cymru | Labour | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBlaenau Gwent and Rhymney | 25.4% | 23.7% | 14.8% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.0% +24.4 | 21.7% +2.1 | 11.8% +3.0 | 18.9% −6.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Smith Elected | Labour | 16,027 | 53.6 | — |
| Niamh Salkeld | Plaid Cymru | 3,844 | 12.8 | — |
| Hannah Jarvis | Conservative | 3,776 | 12.6 | — |
| Mike Whatley | Other | 2,409 | 8.1 | — |
| Anne Baker | Green | 1,719 | 5.7 | — |
| Jackie Charlton | Lib Dems | 1,268 | 4.2 | — |
| Yas Iqbal | Other | 570 | 1.9 | — |
| Robert Griffiths | Other | 309 | 1.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029