Riding profile
North Shropshire
The question
North Shropshire: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Shropshire | 38.9% | 30.4% | 18.1% | 7.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +27.6 | 25.4% +5.1 | 19.3% −1.2 | 10.8% −3.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
North Shropshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 39% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Helen Morgan
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helen Morgan Elected | Lib Dems | 26,214 | 52.9 | — |
| Simon Baynes | Conservative | 10,903 | 22.0 | — |
| Mark Whittle | Reform UK | 7,687 | 15.5 | — |
| Natalie Rowley | Labour | 3,423 | 6.9 | — |
| Craig Emery | Green | 1,234 | 2.5 | — |
| Samuel Cladingbowl | Other | 133 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029