Riding profile
Wrexham
The question
Wrexham: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Wrexham, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 25% vote share, against 21% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Andrew Ranger
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.9
- P(close race)
- 94%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWrexham | 25.1% | 21.2% | 19.8% | 13.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% −0.2 | 18.9% +2.3 | 21.7% −1.9 | 1.0% +12.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Ranger Elected | Labour | 15,836 | 39.2 | — |
| Sarah Atherton | Conservative | 9,888 | 24.5 | — |
| Charles Dodman | Reform UK | 6,915 | 17.1 | — |
| Becca Martin | Plaid Cymru | 4,138 | 10.3 | — |
| Timothy Sly | Lib Dems | 1,777 | 4.4 | — |
| Tim Morgan | Green | 1,339 | 3.3 | — |
| Paul Ashton | Other | 480 | 1.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029