Riding profile

Wrexham

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Wrexham: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.4
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 27.7%
  • Labour 20.3%
  • Conservative 19.0%
  • Plaid Cymru 17.0%
  • Green 9.3%
  • Lib Dems 4.2%
  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
HereWrexham 27.7%20.3%19.0%17.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +2.4 21.8% −1.5 19.3% −0.3 1.2% +15.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Wrexham, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 20% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Andrew Ranger

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
14.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew Ranger Elected Labour 15,836 39.2 —
Sarah Atherton Conservative 9,888 24.5 —
Charles Dodman Reform UK 6,915 17.1 —
Becca Martin Plaid Cymru 4,138 10.3 —
Timothy Sly Lib Dems 1,777 4.4 —
Tim Morgan Green 1,339 3.3 —
Paul Ashton Other 480 1.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,443
Median age
42
Employment rate
73.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029