Riding profile
Chester North and Neston
The question
Chester North and Neston: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Chester North and Neston, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Samantha Dixon
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChester North and Neston | 32.4% | 26.5% | 18.2% | 15.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +10.8 | 25.3% +1.2 | 18.9% −0.7 | 11.8% +3.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samantha Dixon Elected | Labour | 22,258 | 49.8 | — |
| Simon Eardley | Conservative | 10,388 | 23.2 | — |
| Nicholas Goulding | Reform UK | 5,870 | 13.1 | — |
| Nick Brown | Green | 4,102 | 9.2 | — |
| Steve Gribbon | Lib Dems | 2,076 | 4.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029