Riding profile
Chester North and Neston
The question
Chester North and Neston: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChester North and Neston | 33.7% | 27.3% | 17.7% | 14.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +11.9 | 25.4% +1.9 | 19.3% −1.6 | 10.8% +3.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Chester North and Neston, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Samantha Dixon
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samantha Dixon Elected | Labour | 22,258 | 49.8 | — |
| Simon Eardley | Conservative | 10,388 | 23.2 | — |
| Nicholas Goulding | Reform UK | 5,870 | 13.1 | — |
| Nick Brown | Green | 4,102 | 9.2 | — |
| Steve Gribbon | Lib Dems | 2,076 | 4.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029