Riding profile

Shrewsbury

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Shrewsbury: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 28.3%
  • Reform UK 28.1%
  • Conservative 19.0%
  • Lib Dems 13.1%
  • Green 9.1%
  • Other 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems
HereShrewsbury 28.3%28.1%19.0%13.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +6.5 25.4% +2.7 19.3% −0.3 11.4% +1.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Shrewsbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 28% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Julia Buckley

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
22.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julia Buckley Elected Labour 22,932 44.5
Daniel Kawczynski Conservative 11,577 22.4
Victor Applegate Reform UK 7,524 14.6
Alex Wagner Lib Dems 6,722 13.0
Julian Dean Green 2,387 4.6
Chris Bovill Other 241 0.5
James Gollins Other 177 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
101,486
Median age
44
Employment rate
84.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029