Riding profile
Shrewsbury
The question
Shrewsbury: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereShrewsbury | 28.3% | 28.1% | 19.0% | 13.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +6.5 | 25.4% +2.7 | 19.3% −0.3 | 11.4% +1.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Shrewsbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 28% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Julia Buckley
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Buckley Elected | Labour | 22,932 | 44.5 | — |
| Daniel Kawczynski | Conservative | 11,577 | 22.4 | — |
| Victor Applegate | Reform UK | 7,524 | 14.6 | — |
| Alex Wagner | Lib Dems | 6,722 | 13.0 | — |
| Julian Dean | Green | 2,387 | 4.6 | — |
| Chris Bovill | Other | 241 | 0.5 | — |
| James Gollins | Other | 177 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029