Riding profile

Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge

UK constituency — England · Mixed · west midlands

The question

Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 36.6%
  • Labour 20.8%
  • Reform UK 19.8%
  • Green 8.2%
  • Lib Dems 7.3%
  • Other 7.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Labour Reform UK Green
HereStone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge 36.6%20.8%19.8%8.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +17.3 21.8% −1.0 25.4% −5.5 10.8% −2.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 37% vote share, against 21% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Gavin Williamson

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
12.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gavin Williamson Elected Conservative 19,880 46.5
Jacqueline Brown Labour 14,414 33.7
Sam Harper-Wallis Lib Dems 2,952 6.9
Janice MacKay Other 2,638 6.2
Danni Braine Green 2,236 5.2
Alexander Bramham Other 650 1.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,775
Median age
47
Employment rate
70.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029